Ming-Chi Kuo: Vision Pro Expands Production to 700,000~800,000 Units, Lands in More Regional Markets Before WWDC

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(XR Navigation Network February 29, 2024）著名apple消息人士郭明錤日前issue an official document称，VisionPro在美国market的需求已经大幅放缓，出货时间目前改善到3 -5天。另外，他预计这款头显设备有望在WWDC大会之前登陆全球更多的国家和地区。

值得一提的是，他指出相关供应链已经扩产，从今年的50–60万台扩产到70–80万台。同时，Vision Pro的退货率低于1%，这个结果并无异常。

Here's what Ming-Chi Kuo shared about the intelligence:

Demand in the U.S. market has slowed dramatically

• Vision Pro shipping times have now improved to 3-5 days (arriving in early March).

• Shipments after pre-orders opened on January 19th will be in early March. This means that although the Vision Pro sold out after the pre-order was opened due to aggressive purchases by early adopters, demand then declined rapidly and has not improved since. My previous prediction was correct.

• Unless the Vision Pro gets a price cut or more attractive apps, shipment growth in the U.S. market will be limited.

• This year's U.S. market shipments are estimated to be about 200,000-250,000 units, which is better than Apple's original estimate of 150,000-200,000 units, but this scale is still a niche market.

Global Release Schedule Forecast

• As demand in the U.S. market has limited room for growth, the improved supply will favor an earlier global release schedule, but the actual release time will depend on when Apple modifies its software to comply with regulations in other countries.

• I'm maintaining my prediction for now that Apple may make the Vision Pro available in more countries before WWDC this year.

Supply Chain Expansion

• In the past month, several suppliers with previously smaller capacities have expanded production to 700-800,000 units from 500-600,000 units this year. Even so, this scale is still a niche product.

• In addition to better-than-expected demand from early adopters in the U.S. market, the other main reason Apple is asking suppliers to expand production is to reduce the time it takes to ship after the global launch.

• It is important to note that production capacity is often not the same as shipments. In the case of the iPhone, for example, assembly capacity currently stands at 250-300 million units per year, but actual shipments are significantly lower.

return rate

• Based on my investigation of the repair/refurbishment line, the current return rate for Vision Pro is less than 1%, and there is nothing unusual about this result.

• It is interesting to note that about 20-30% of the users who returned the product did so because they did not know how to set up Vision Pro.

New model forecast

• It's widely expected that Apple will release both a lower-priced version with reduced specs (e.g., fewer cameras, removal of Eyesight, etc.) and a new model with upgraded specs. However, my latest research shows that Apple has not yet officially launched either of these programs.

• Apple's new Vision Pro project is expected to be in mass production in 4Q25-1Q26, with Hon Hai acquiring new product development. This new program focuses on improving supply chain production and management efficiency rather than specification changes. The new program may reduce costs, and the latest plans show limited specification changes, so it is speculated that the user experience may not be different from the current model.

• Apple is already collecting user feedback to plan Vision Pro product blueprints. It is currently estimated that the new model with significant changes in Vision Pro specifications may not be in mass production until 2027.

in conclusion

• Everything about the Vision Pro since its pre-order has been in line with previous expectations, with the only thing that has exceeded expectations being the higher than expected number of early adopters and the expansion of production by suppliers. But even so, Vision Pro is still a niche product based on current demand (2024 shipment estimate up to 600-700k units vs. 500k units previously) and production scale.

• For Apple and the vast majority of its suppliers, the Vision Pro investment theme is still having a very limited impact on the stock price.

• The three keys for Vision Pro to go from a niche product to a mass market product are application, price and comfort of the headset. Improvements/changes in these three keys will be the focus of future observation.